Saturday, April 13, 2013

Investment Rules

1. You cannot borrow your way to prosperity

2. Debt does matter

3. Currency debasement is not in the long-term interest of a nation's economy

4. Central planners will fail to control where capital sloshes around the globe

5. And real assets, not equities, are the best way to manage wealth during times when our Lords of the Universe believe these last four points aren't true.

The whole investment crisis was caused by keeping interest rates too low for too long creating asset and investment bubbles. The answer surely cannot be to keep interest rates even lower to reflate the same asset and investment bubbles?

Govt needs to default and restructure their debt. Collapse the economies to a viable size and normalize interest rates. Painfully but the best course of action for the average middle class person. I think this is inevitable it is just we need to let the Central Banks continue with their failed policies for longer until we have another crisis.

I think there are only two ways out of the current crisis:
1. The Central Banks manage to get the money printed via QE into the hands of consumers (instead of just the banks) and this creates inflation while interest rates are kept low and the debts are inflated away.
2. Central Banks don't create enough inflation and debts become so large that there is a currency crisis, debts are defaulted on, maybe new currencies are introduced.

Either way the best investment will be real assets.

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